Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 6 Oct 2024

Fortuna Düsseldorf
0-3 HT 0-1
Hamburg
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
2.18
Over
45%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
4.47
2-3
41%
1.89
4-5
20%
2.92
6+
11%
8.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.47 — our 28% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.76
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
13%
6.12
X/2
12%
5.66
X/X
12%
5.15
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
12%
3.35
2/X
11%
12.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
38%
-7.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
42%
+13.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
58%
-13.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.9pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Hamburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.52/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.35
+2% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
19.9 Crosses 18.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Hamburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.83 xG 1.47
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
247 Passes 459
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.03.2024 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
29.09.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
31.03.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 HT 2-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
17.09.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
19.03.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
16.10.2021 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2

Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 Hamburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
0-3
AWAY Hamburg
2.01 xG 2.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
416 Passes 442
91% Pass Accuracy 89%
37 Box Touches 29
32 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg cruised past Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortuna Düsseldorf had 49% of the ball to Hamburg's 51%, shots finished 21-17, expected goals 2.01 to 2.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.17 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburg?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Düsseldorf 41%, draw 29%, Hamburg 31%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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