Sumqayıt 0-1 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.18
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
62%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
11%
+5.8pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.1pp
62%
Away Win
71%
-8.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 75%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
0.50/2.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.49/0.67
-24% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -24%
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
213 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sumqayıt
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.83
30% Ball Possession 70%
4 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
25.02.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
08.12.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 1-6 HT 1-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
29.09.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 5-0 HT 4-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
22.05.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 1-2 HT 0-2 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
15.03.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-6 HT 0-4 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
16.10.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ squeezed past Sumqayıt 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sumqayıt and 3.83 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs Karabağ?

Sumqayıt 0-1 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 17%, draw 21%, Karabağ 62%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
6 Oct 2024
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