Spartak Varna 3-2 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
1.92
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
17%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
48%
-12.1pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.7pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 EU Bookmakers 27%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.01/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.60
-7% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / +71%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.11.2023 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BULK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
3-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna nicked a narrow win over Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 33% / 31% — and on the day Spartak Varna made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 67% of the ball to Lokomotiv Sofia 1929's 33%, shots finished 18-10.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

Spartak Varna 3-2 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 36%, draw 33%, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Varna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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