Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.22
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.53
No
53%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
78%
-15.5pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.9pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+8.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
36%
+11.2pp
53%
BTTS No
64%
-11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
3.02/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.42
+58% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +46%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
468 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.05.2024 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 3-0 HT 3-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
30.03.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 1-1 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad BUL1
06.12.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 4-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BULK
27.09.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
15.05.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad
1-0
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ludogorets Razgrad squeezed past Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ludogorets Razgrad as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ludogorets Razgrad had 62% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 38%, shots finished 20-3.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ludogorets Razgrad had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Ludogorets Razgrad and 0.40 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ludogorets Razgrad win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Ludogorets Razgrad 62%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
6 Oct 2024
15:00 Hebar 1918 vs Botev Vratsa Analysis →
17:30 Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Analysis →