Aguila 1-4 Isidro Metapan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — El Salvador - Primera Liga, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
14%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.0pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.5pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguila EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Isidro Metapan EU Bookmakers 23%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.77/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.10
+9% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aguila
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Isidro Metapan
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Isidro Metapan Isidro Metapan 0-0 HT 0-0 Aguila Aguila ELSAL
11.04.2024 Isidro Metapan Isidro Metapan 1-0 HT 0-0 Aguila Aguila ELSAL
08.02.2024 Aguila Aguila 0-0 HT 0-0 Isidro Metapan Isidro Metapan ELSAL
04.12.2023 Aguila Aguila 1-0 HT 1-0 Isidro Metapan Isidro Metapan ELSAL
01.12.2023 Isidro Metapan Isidro Metapan 0-0 HT 0-0 Aguila Aguila ELSAL
05.11.2023 Isidro Metapan Isidro Metapan 2-0 HT 0-0 Aguila Aguila ELSAL
POST-MATCH Aguila vs Isidro Metapan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Isidro Metapan swept aside Aguila 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aguila at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Isidro Metapan led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Aguila and 0.50 for Isidro Metapan.

What was the final score of Aguila vs Isidro Metapan?

Aguila 1-4 Isidro Metapan in the El Salvador - Primera Liga on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguila vs Isidro Metapan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aguila win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aguila 44%, draw 32%, Isidro Metapan 24%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aguila) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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