Jarun 1-1 Vukovar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 2.HNL, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒14:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.08
Draw
38%
3.11
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
25%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Vukovar win — 39%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
29%
-5.7pp
38%
Draw
29%
+9.2pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jarun EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Vukovar EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.73
+150% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +112% / -47%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jarun
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Vukovar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2024 Jarun Jarun 2-2 HT 1-0 Vukovar Vukovar HIR2
03.03.2024 Vukovar Vukovar 0-1 HT 0-0 Jarun Jarun HIR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jarun
1-1
AWAY Vukovar
44% Ball Possession 56%
4 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Jarun vs Vukovar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jarun and Vukovar shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (23% / 38% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Jarun had 44% of the ball to Vukovar's 56%, shots finished 4-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Jarun had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Jarun and 1.00 for Vukovar.

What was the final score of Jarun vs Vukovar?

Jarun 1-1 Vukovar in the Croatia - 2.HNL on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jarun vs Vukovar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vukovar win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Jarun 23%, draw 38%, Vukovar 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vukovar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vukovar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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