Kyoto Sanga 2-3 Vissel Kobe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
50%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 24% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.09
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
7%
8.19
X/2
17%
4.3
X/X
10%
4.88
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.46
2/X
8%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
50%
Away Win
49%
+0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.3pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Vissel Kobe EU Bookmakers 54%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.29/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.09
+8% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +29%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
19.4 Crosses 22.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Vissel Kobe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 1.62
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
221 Passes 359
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 0-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
03.09.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 2-1 HT 1-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
01.04.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-3 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
03.09.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-0 HT 2-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
02.04.2022 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 1-3 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
11.09.2010 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 3-0 HT 1-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2-3
AWAY Vissel Kobe
0.61 xG 1.62
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
240 Passes 189
67% Pass Accuracy 63%
14 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Vissel Kobe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vissel Kobe nicked a narrow win over Kyoto Sanga 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vissel Kobe as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 55% of the ball to Vissel Kobe's 45%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.61 to 1.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kyoto Sanga had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.00 for Vissel Kobe.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Vissel Kobe?

Kyoto Sanga 2-3 Vissel Kobe in the Japan - J1 League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Vissel Kobe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vissel Kobe win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 27%, draw 23%, Vissel Kobe 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vissel Kobe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vissel Kobe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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