Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-6.2pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.1pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.7pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.15/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.09
-20% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
14.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
18.7 Crosses 14.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.16 xG 1.07
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
268 Passes 360
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
25.03.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
25.08.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
18.06.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
21.05.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
06.03.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.08.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.19 xG 0.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
24 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
362 Passes 248
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 8
29 Crosses 13
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional squeezed past Deportivo Pasto 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 32% / 34% — and on the day Atletico Nacional made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 57% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 43%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 1.19 to 0.55 — the balance of chances actually favoured Deportivo Pasto.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.83 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 34%, draw 32%, Atletico Nacional 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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