Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Deportivo Pasto
KOL
3-2
HT 1-1
Deportivo Pasto
KOL
1-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Nacional
KOL
0-1
HT 0-1
Atletico Nacional
KOL
3-1
HT 2-0
Deportivo Pasto
KOL
0-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Nacional
KOL
Atletico Nacional 1-0 Deportivo Pasto — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Nacional nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Pasto 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Atletico Nacional had 48% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 52%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.42 to 0.43.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.67 for Deportivo Pasto.
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Atletico Nacional 1-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 25/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 44%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pasto 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.