Tlaxcala 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.61/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.44
+3% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tlaxcala
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
20.03.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
17.09.2023 Tlaxcala 2-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
02.02.2023 Tlaxcala 3-1 HT 2-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
25.09.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-0 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
17.03.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 HT 2-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
12.08.2021 Tlaxcala 1-1 HT 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tlaxcala squeezed past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tlaxcala as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tlaxcala and 1.50 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Tlaxcala 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tlaxcala win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 48%, draw 25%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tlaxcala) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tlaxcala) ✗ Under 2.5
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