Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
11%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 26% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.58
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.54
X/2
14%
5.81
X/X
13%
4.55
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
13%
3.84
2/X
7%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 38%
+9% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +2%
1.40/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.26
+38% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
16.4 Crosses 21.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.20 xG 2.03
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
306 Passes 432
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
07.04.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
01.10.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 2-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.05.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
29.10.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-5 HT 1-3 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
13.05.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
28.11.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.64 xG 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 3
379 Passes 432
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 44
7 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok and Legia Varşova couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 46% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 54%, shots finished 12-22, expected goals 1.64 to 2.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 2.33 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Varşova?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 40%, draw 26%, Legia Varşova 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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