Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Piast Gliwice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 29% vs market 28.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.05
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
19%
4.72
X/2
7%
6.65
X/X
13%
4.23
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
15%
4.97
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Piast Gliwice EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +24%
1.56/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.26
+12% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.8 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Piast Gliwice
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.06 xG 0.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
521 Passes 253
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.06.2024 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin HAZ
20.04.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-2 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
20.10.2023 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
29.04.2023 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
15.10.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-1 HT 0-1 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
05.02.2022 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 0-2 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-0
AWAY Piast Gliwice
1.86 xG 0.88
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
419 Passes 350
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 21
30 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin squeezed past Piast Gliwice 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 55% of the ball to Piast Gliwice's 45%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.86 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Piast Gliwice led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.67 for Piast Gliwice.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Piast Gliwice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 46%, draw 27%, Piast Gliwice 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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