Legia Varşova 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 7 Apr 2024

Legia Varşova
1-1 HT 1-0
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
9%
4.57
X/2
13%
7.6
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.15
2/2
12%
5.33
2/X
10%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.3pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Legia Varşova v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.70/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.64
+18% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
364 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 72%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
23.1 Crosses 16.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.11 xG 1.22
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
457 Passes 277
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 2-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.05.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
29.10.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-5 HT 1-3 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
13.05.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
28.11.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
14.02.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL

Legia Varşova 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.71 xG 1.12
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
309 Passes 413
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova and Jagiellonia Bialystok couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 44% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 56%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.71 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.33 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Legia Varşova 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 41%, draw 28%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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