Lech Poznan 1-0 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.67
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 31% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.14
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
17%
5.03
X/2
15%
6.27
X/X
12%
4.9
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
16%
4.26
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.1pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 36%
+12% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.51/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.69
+56% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
14.1 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.48 xG 1.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
400 Passes 276
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.02.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
01.10.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 5-0 HT 3-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.09.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
23.06.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin HAZ
26.02.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-3 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
1-0
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.03 xG 1.88
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
310 Passes 324
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan squeezed past Pogon Szczecin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Lech Poznan made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 49% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 51%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 1.03 to 1.88 — the balance of chances actually favoured Pogon Szczecin.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.83 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Lech Poznan 1-0 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 39%, draw 25%, Pogon Szczecin 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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