Mafra 1-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.55
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.65
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.2 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
1-1
AWAY Alverca
1.40 xG 0.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
338 Passes 262
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra and Alverca shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Mafra had 55% of the ball to Alverca's 45%, shots finished 6-4, expected goals 1.40 to 0.55.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Alverca?

Mafra 1-1 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mafra 34%, draw 28%, Alverca 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alverca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alverca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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