Penafiel 1-0 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.0
6+ Goals
8%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 33% vs market 28.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.36/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.08
+1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.2 Crosses 19.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.93 xG 0.93
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 10
202 Passes 402
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-2 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
16.12.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
31.10.2007 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel PORLC
02.04.2006 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
27.11.2005 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
13.02.2005 Penafiel Penafiel 3-0 HT 2-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-0
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.00 xG 1.18
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 15
107 Passes 353
62% Pass Accuracy 88%
6 Crosses 46
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel nicked a narrow win over Uniao De Leiria 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Penafiel made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Penafiel had 33% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 67%, shots finished 8-24, expected goals 1.00 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Penafiel and 0.50 for Uniao De Leiria.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Uniao De Leiria?

Penafiel 1-0 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 36%, draw 29%, Uniao De Leiria 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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