CA Penarol 2-0 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 6 Oct 2025

📅06/10/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.47
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
64%
+2.7pp
18%
Draw
21%
-3.7pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.59/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.32
-16% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Danubio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
16.10.2024 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.04.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
19.11.2023 Danubio Danubio 2-1 HT 2-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.07.2023 Danubio Danubio 1-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.04.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
2-0
AWAY Danubio
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol beat Danubio 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 57% of the ball to Danubio's 43%, shots finished 12-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for CA Penarol and 0.50 for Danubio.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Danubio?

CA Penarol 2-0 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 06/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 66%, draw 18%, Danubio 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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