Luton Town 1-0 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 6 Nov 2024

Luton Town
1-0 HT 0-0
Cardiff City
📅06/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Luton Town vs Cardiff City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 30% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.45
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
16%
4.3
X/2
11%
8.21
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
11%
6.05
2/X
10%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.8pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luton Town v Cardiff City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +19%
1.55/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.30
-9% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
24.5 Crosses 15.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Luton Town vs Cardiff City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cardiff City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 1.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
292 Passes 242
72% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.01.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
30.08.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
18.04.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
27.11.2021 Luton Town Luton Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
16.02.2021 Luton Town Luton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
28.11.2020 Cardiff City Cardiff City 4-0 HT 2-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL

Luton Town 1-0 Cardiff City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
1-0
AWAY Cardiff City
0.98 xG 0.39
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
230 Passes 330
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town nicked a narrow win over Cardiff City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Luton Town as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Luton Town had 44% of the ball to Cardiff City's 56%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.98 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Luton Town and 1.50 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Cardiff City?

Luton Town 1-0 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 47%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luton Town), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Luton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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