Millwall 1-0 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 6 Nov 2024

Millwall
1-0 HT 1-0
Leeds United
📅06/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Millwall vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
44%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.62
Over 2.5
36%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
2.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.62
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 38% vs market 32.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.96
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
11%
8.15
X/2
16%
3.89
X/X
16%
4.22
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.5
2/X
7%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+5.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-6.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
58%
+6.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
42%
-6.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.6pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Millwall v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 55%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -12%
1.04/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.87
-10% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +24%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
218 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 442 · 82%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
18.5 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Millwall vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Leeds United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.40 xG 2.25
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
180 Passes 408
64% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 2-0 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
17.09.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-3 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
28.01.2020 Leeds United Leeds United 3-2 HT 0-2 Millwall Millwall İNCL
05.10.2019 Millwall Millwall 2-1 HT 2-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
30.03.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 3-2 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
15.09.2018 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Millwall 1-0 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-0
AWAY Leeds United
0.22 xG 0.74
24% Ball Possession 76%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 12
132 Passes 562
66% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 28
7 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall squeezed past Leeds United 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Leeds United at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Millwall had 24% of the ball to Leeds United's 76%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.22 to 0.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Leeds United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Millwall and 2.17 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Leeds United?

Millwall 1-0 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Millwall 28%, draw 28%, Leeds United 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Leeds United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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