Santos Laguna 0-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Nov 2024

📅06/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.13
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
48%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 29% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
21%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
21%
+10.8pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.5pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 59%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.29/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.38
-20% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -75% / +93%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 83%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
18.6 Crosses 46.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 1.32
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
259 Passes 318
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.01.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
27.08.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
05.03.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
17.07.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
06.03.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
16.08.2021 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
0-2
AWAY Guadalajara
0.90 xG 0.97
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
489 Passes 285
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara saw off Santos Laguna 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 60% of the ball to Guadalajara's 40%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 0.90 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.00 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?

Santos Laguna 0-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 32%, draw 20%, Guadalajara 48%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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