UPDF vs Uganda Police Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
UPDF v Uganda Police — Team-Based Signals
UPDF vs Uganda Police Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
2-2
HT 0-2
UPDF
UGA
0-1
HT 0-0
Uganda Police
UGA
UPDF 1-2 Uganda Police — Actual Match Statistics
Uganda Police edged past UPDF 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Uganda Police found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, UPDF had 49% of the ball to Uganda Police's 51%, shots finished 7-7.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Uganda Police led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UPDF and 1.67 for Uganda Police.
What was the final score of UPDF vs Uganda Police?
UPDF 1-2 Uganda Police in the Uganda - Premier League on 06/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for UPDF vs Uganda Police?
Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split UPDF 37%, draw 31%, Uganda Police 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.