Paderborn 2-4 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 6 Dec 2024

Paderborn
2-4 HT 1-2
Schalke 04
📅06/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Paderborn vs Schalke 04 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.02
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.75 — our 27% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.42
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.89
X/2
11%
10.6
X/X
16%
6.41
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
6%
7.21
2/X
6%
15.8
Value flag · X/1 at 4.89 — our 27% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.6pp
23%
Away Win
23%
-0.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.7pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Schalke 04 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
1.99/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.71
+12% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
19.3 Crosses 16.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Paderborn vs Schalke 04 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Schalke 04
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.34 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
288 Passes 327
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2024 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 3-3 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
29.09.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 1-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
18.02.2022 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 2-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
12.09.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
08.02.2020 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-1 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
15.09.2019 Paderborn Paderborn 1-5 HT 1-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1

Paderborn 2-4 Schalke 04 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
2-4
AWAY Schalke 04
1.18 xG 2.54
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 9
283 Passes 365
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 got the better of Paderborn 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Paderborn at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Paderborn had 44% of the ball to Schalke 04's 56%, shots finished 5-24, expected goals 1.18 to 2.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Schalke 04 led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Paderborn and 2.17 for Schalke 04.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Schalke 04?

Paderborn 2-4 Schalke 04 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 49%, draw 29%, Schalke 04 23%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ BTTS No
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