Schalke 04 3-3 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.02
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
13%
5.08
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
6.56
X/X
11%
5.08
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
15%
4.32
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · X/2 at 6.56 — our 17% vs market 11.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+7.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.68/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.46
+27% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +10%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.9 Crosses 15.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Schalke 04
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Paderborn
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 1.06
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
358 Passes 291
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 1-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
18.02.2022 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 2-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
12.09.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
08.02.2020 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-1 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
15.09.2019 Paderborn Paderborn 1-5 HT 1-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1
15.07.2017 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Schalke 04
3-3
AWAY Paderborn
1.87 xG 2.73
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
172 Passes 277
65% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 29
23 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Schalke 04 vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 and Paderborn couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Schalke 04 had 41% of the ball to Paderborn's 59%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.87 to 2.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Schalke 04 had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Schalke 04 and 0.83 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Schalke 04 vs Paderborn?

Schalke 04 3-3 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Schalke 04 vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Schalke 04 38%, draw 24%, Paderborn 38%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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