Holstein Kiel 1-0 Karlsruher SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
39%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.03
Over 2.5
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.9
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
6+ Goals
13%
10.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.91
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
12%
4.97
X/2
10%
6.95
X/X
10%
4.85
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
20%
4.68
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.4pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.7pp
39%
Away Win
29%
+10.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
45%
-3.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
55%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Karlsruher SC EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -17%
1.78/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.51
-4% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
22.3 Crosses 20.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Karlsruher SC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.69 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
334 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.09.2023 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 0-2 HT 0-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
13.05.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 1-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
05.11.2022 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 1-4 HT 0-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
19.02.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-2 HT 0-1 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
11.09.2021 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 2-2 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
16.05.2021 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 3-2 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-0
AWAY Karlsruher SC
1.63 xG 1.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 8
390 Passes 294
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Karlsruher SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel squeezed past Karlsruher SC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 22% / 39% — and on the day Holstein Kiel made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 55% of the ball to Karlsruher SC's 45%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.63 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.50 for Karlsruher SC.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Karlsruher SC?

Holstein Kiel 1-0 Karlsruher SC in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Karlsruher SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 39%, draw 22%, Karlsruher SC 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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