Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Dec 2024

📅06/12/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
32%
2.6
No OUR CALL
68%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
4.63
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 36% vs market 32.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.75
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
23.4
X/1
16%
3.19
X/2
7%
16.5
X/X
10%
5.06
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
7%
16.05
2/X
10%
25.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 68%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
67%
-10.2pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.4pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.6pp
32%
BTTS Yes
34%
-1.9pp
68%
BTTS No
66%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +16%
1.64/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.44
+8% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +37%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
459 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 77%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
25.3 Crosses 15.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cuiaba
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.75 xG 0.81
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
419 Passes 344
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2024 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
01.10.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 3-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
14.05.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 1-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
07.08.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 1-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
17.04.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
21.09.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 2-2 HT 1-2 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Cuiaba
2.03 xG 0.05
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
442 Passes 298
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
38 Box Touches 1
25 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Cuiaba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Cuiaba 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (68%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fluminense had 58% of the ball to Cuiaba's 42%, shots finished 24-3, expected goals 2.03 to 0.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fluminense's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fluminense and 0.83 for Cuiaba.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Cuiaba?

Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 56%, draw 25%, Cuiaba 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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