Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Dec 2024

📅06/12/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.73
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
4.39
6+ Goals
9%
22.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.97
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
13%
4.48
X/2
12%
6.96
X/X
14%
4.16
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
12%
5.49
2/X
5%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -16%
1.58/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.25
-5% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
22.6 Crosses 20.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bragantino
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.45 xG 1.74
44% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
255 Passes 345
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.08.2024 Bragantino Bragantino 2-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
01.08.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 2-0 Bragantino Bragantino BRK
22.07.2024 Bragantino Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
09.10.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino Bragantino BR1
21.05.2023 Bragantino Bragantino 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
22.10.2022 Bragantino Bragantino 4-2 HT 3-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-2
AWAY Bragantino
1.81 xG 0.74
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
292 Passes 268
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 20
34 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino edged past Atletico Paranaense 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 53% of the ball to Bragantino's 47%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.81 to 0.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Paranaense.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bragantino led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.67 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino?

Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 43%, draw 26%, Bragantino 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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