Bragantino 1-0 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Jul 2024

📅22/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.21
6+ Goals
9%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 34% vs market 30.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
21%
4.24
X/2
10%
7.54
X/X
13%
4.24
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
7%
6.04
2/X
7%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.65/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.50
+19% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
23.6 Crosses 17.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 0.92
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
380 Passes 233
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.10.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
21.05.2023 Bragantino 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
22.10.2022 Bragantino 4-2 HT 3-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
25.06.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-2 HT 3-0 Bragantino BR1
20.11.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino CON CSA
07.11.2021 Bragantino 0-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
1-0
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.82 xG 1.48
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 11
233 Passes 460
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 47
9 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino edged past Atletico Paranaense 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bragantino had 35% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 65%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 0.82 to 1.48 — on chances, Atletico Paranaense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bragantino and 1.67 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Atletico Paranaense?

Bragantino 1-0 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 46%, draw 30%, Atletico Paranaense 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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