Fortaleza 3-1 Atletico Goianiense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Jul 2024

📅22/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.95
No
61%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.97
6+ Goals
8%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 35% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.25
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.8
X/1
18%
3.9
X/2
5%
9.56
X/X
16%
4.54
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
13%
7.86
2/X
5%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
47%
-8.1pp
61%
BTTS No
53%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.67/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.34
-5% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
386 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
23.9 Crosses 16.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Goianiense
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 0.83
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
334 Passes 287
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.11.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.07.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
02.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.06.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
25.01.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
05.10.2020 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
3-1
AWAY Atletico Goianiense
1.57 xG 0.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
395 Passes 242
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Atletico Goianiense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza got the better of Atletico Goianiense 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza had 60% of the ball to Atletico Goianiense's 40%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.57 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Goianiense led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Fortaleza and 1.00 for Atletico Goianiense.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Atletico Goianiense?

Fortaleza 3-1 Atletico Goianiense in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Atletico Goianiense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 49%, draw 27%, Atletico Goianiense 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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