Lille 3-1 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 6 Dec 2024

Lille
3-1 HT 2-0
Brest
📅06/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lille vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.9
6+ Goals
13%
17.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.9 — our 25% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.27
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.3
X/1
14%
4.29
X/2
9%
12.45
X/X
12%
5.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
30.0
2/2
8%
10.35
2/X
5%
18.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 12% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-4.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.1pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.3pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.66/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.86
-5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.9 Crosses 18.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lille vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Brest
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.19 xG 0.77
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
462 Passes 278
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
22.10.2023 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
24.02.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
11.01.2023 Brest Brest 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
22.01.2022 Brest Brest 2-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
23.10.2021 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-1 Brest Brest FR1

Lille 3-1 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
3-1
AWAY Brest
2.51 xG 0.66
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
550 Passes 303
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 9
8 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lille vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille saw off Brest 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lille had 62% of the ball to Brest's 38%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 2.51 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lille and 0.83 for Brest.

What was the final score of Lille vs Brest?

Lille 3-1 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lille 53%, draw 23%, Brest 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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