Brest 1-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Mar 2024

Brest
1-1 HT 0-0
Lille
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Brest vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.03
No
63%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.28
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.37
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
21%
4.93
X/2
15%
5.81
X/X
14%
3.57
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
11%
4.62
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.5pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
45%
-8.4pp
63%
BTTS No
55%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brest v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.36/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.18
+0% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
23.8 Crosses 13.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Brest vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lille
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.62 xG 1.18
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
249 Passes 498
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
24.02.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
11.01.2023 Brest Brest 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
22.01.2022 Brest Brest 2-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
23.10.2021 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-1 Brest Brest FR1
14.02.2021 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1

Brest 1-1 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
1-1
AWAY Lille
1.03 xG 0.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 3
398 Passes 377
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brest vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest and Lille couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Brest at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Brest had 51% of the ball to Lille's 49%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.03 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Brest and 0.67 for Lille.

What was the final score of Brest vs Lille?

Brest 1-1 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brest 41%, draw 27%, Lille 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Brest), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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