Montpellier 2-6 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Mar 2024

Montpellier
2-6 HT 2-2
PSG
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Montpellier vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
42%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.59
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.61
No
40%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.74
2-3 Goals
35%
2.03
4-5 Goals
28%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
9.18
1/2
6%
19.4
1/X
8%
17.3
X/1
12%
13.4
X/2
14%
3.86
X/X
10%
7.4
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
1.73
2/X
6%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
16%
+18.3pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.7pp
42%
Away Win
64%
-22.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.1pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 69%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +2%
1.12/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.28
-5% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +11%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 85%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
19.5 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Montpellier vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSG
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.73 xG 2.82
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
298 Passes 597
82% Pass Accuracy 91%
10 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.11.2023 PSG PSG 3-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
01.02.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-3 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
13.08.2022 PSG PSG 5-2 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
14.05.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-4 HT 0-3 PSG PSG FR1
25.09.2021 PSG PSG 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
12.05.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 2-2 HT 1-1 PSG PSG FRK

Montpellier 2-6 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
2-6
AWAY PSG
2.48 xG 1.56
32% Ball Possession 68%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 4
248 Passes 614
81% Pass Accuracy 92%
21 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG cruised past Montpellier 6-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 6-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Montpellier had 32% of the ball to PSG's 68%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 2.48 to 1.56 — on chances, Montpellier could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Montpellier and 3.17 for PSG.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs PSG?

Montpellier 2-6 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 35%, draw 23%, PSG 42%. The final score 2-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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