Reims 2-1 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Mar 2024

Reims
2-1 HT 1-1
Metz
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Reims vs Metz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.29
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 26% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.31
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
13%
4.04
X/2
12%
8.88
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
11%
6.93
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.2pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Reims v Metz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reims EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 25%
-11% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.77/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.53
-13% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
401 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
22.3 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Reims vs Metz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reims
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Metz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
326 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 1-1 Reims Reims FR1
20.07.2022 Reims Reims 1-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz HAZ
16.01.2022 Reims Reims 0-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
22.08.2021 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-1 Reims Reims FR1
18.04.2021 Reims Reims 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
20.09.2020 Metz Metz 2-1 HT 1-1 Reims Reims FR1

Reims 2-1 Metz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reims
2-1
AWAY Metz
2.17 xG 0.86
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
398 Passes 172
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Reims vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reims edged past Metz 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Reims as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Reims had 66% of the ball to Metz's 34%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.17 to 0.86 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Reims's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Metz led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Reims and 1.00 for Metz.

What was the final score of Reims vs Metz?

Reims 2-1 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reims vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Reims win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Reims 47%, draw 25%, Metz 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Reims) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Reims) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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