Montpellier 0-1 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 6 Dec 2025

Montpellier
0-1 HT 0-1
Pau
📅06/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2025/2026

Montpellier vs Pau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.43
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
17%
4.67
X/2
7%
8.4
X/X
12%
5.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
21.75
2/2
9%
6.02
2/X
6%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.75 — our 14% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-1.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.4pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Pau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 29%
+15% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.42/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.33
+38% / +139% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.5 Crosses 18.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6

Montpellier vs Pau Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Pau
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.75 xG 1.18
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
529 Passes 241
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
29 Box Touches 11
40 Crosses 7
The Meetings
06.01.2023 Pau Pau 2-1 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FRK

Montpellier 0-1 Pau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
0-1
AWAY Pau
1.67 xG 0.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 4
324 Passes 245
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau edged past Montpellier 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Montpellier at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montpellier had 56% of the ball to Pau's 44%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.67 to 0.59 — on chances, Montpellier could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Pau?

Montpellier 0-1 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 50%, draw 26%, Pau 23%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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