Lilleström 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - NM Cup, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.1
Over
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
62%
1.59
No
38%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
20%
4.03
2-3
41%
1.85
4-5
26%
3.02
6+
13%
9.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.59
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
11%
4.81
X/2
14%
7.9
X/X
14%
5.44
2/1
7%
22.25
2/2
11%
5.56
2/X
8%
14.0
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Lilleström The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 The Market 30%
Great Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Great Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.80 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 2.17
0.05 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 3.30
Weak Attackvs comparable teams Great
Great Defensevs comparable teams Bad
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.85 xG 1.08
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
420 Passes 288
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 21
30 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.07.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 2-2 HT 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
05.05.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
17.09.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 3-1 HT 2-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.05.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 1-2 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
31.07.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 0-2 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.05.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 1-0 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
REVIEW Lilleström vs Sarpsborg 08
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lilleström got the better of Sarpsborg 08 3-1. From 0-1 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Lilleström made the difference. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (62%) landed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Lilleström against 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08.

Lilleström vs Sarpsborg 08 Result & Final Score

Lilleström 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - NM Cup on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lilleström vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 39%, draw 28%, Sarpsborg 08 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lilleström), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lilleström) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →