Sarpsborg 08 1-0 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.2
2-3 Goals
33%
1.86
4-5 Goals
29%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.99
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
15%
5.15
X/2
7%
6.73
X/X
11%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
2/2
15%
4.37
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
43%
+4.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 34%
-10% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.41/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.23
-6% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
22.5 Crosses 21.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Lilleström
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.01 xG 1.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
289 Passes 375
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
17.09.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 3-1 HT 2-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.05.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 1-2 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
31.07.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 0-2 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.05.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 1-0 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
02.10.2021 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-1 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
28.07.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 2-0 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1-0
AWAY Lilleström
1.13 xG 0.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
348 Passes 549
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
22 Box Touches 32
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 nicked a narrow win over Lilleström 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sarpsborg 08 as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 41% of the ball to Lilleström's 59%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.13 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.33 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Lilleström?

Sarpsborg 08 1-0 Lilleström in the Norway - Eliteserien on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 48%, draw 24%, Lilleström 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
NOR More Norway - Eliteserien
5 May 2024
18:00 Sandefjord vs Molde Analysis →
18:00 Odds BK vs Fredrikstad Analysis →
18:00 Kristiansund BK vs HamKam Analysis →
18:00 Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo Analysis →
18:00 Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset Analysis →
20:15 Viking vs Tromsö Analysis →