Academica 3-3 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 31%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
0.86/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.31
-36% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -44%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Mafra
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.75 xG 1.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
284 Passes 369
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2025 Mafra Mafra 1-0 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR3
30.04.2022 Academica Academica 0-2 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
18.12.2021 Mafra Mafra 2-2 HT 1-0 Academica Academica POR2
08.05.2021 Mafra Mafra 2-2 HT 2-0 Academica Academica POR2
11.01.2021 Academica Academica 1-0 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
15.02.2020 Academica Academica 0-0 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academica
3-3
AWAY Mafra
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Academica vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academica and Mafra couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Academica at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Academica had 59% of the ball to Mafra's 41%, shots finished 14-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mafra led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Academica and 1.17 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Academica vs Mafra?

Academica 3-3 Mafra in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Academica 45%, draw 26%, Mafra 29%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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