Esenler Erokspor 4-1 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.21
Over 2.5
60%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.63
No
39%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.3
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.91
6+ Goals
15%
8.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.15
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.1
X/1
22%
4.42
X/2
8%
9.82
X/X
12%
5.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.9
2/2
7%
7.27
2/X
6%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
-0.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.4pp
61%
BTTS Yes
57%
+4.2pp
39%
BTTS No
43%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 24%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.81/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.90
+84% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
350 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
16.5 Crosses 15.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.60 xG 0.88
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
390 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2025 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
11.01.2025 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
4-1
AWAY Sakaryaspor
2.49 xG 1.10
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
344 Passes 267
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esenler Erokspor cruised past Sakaryaspor 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Esenler Erokspor as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 56% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 44%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 2.49 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sakaryaspor led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.50 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Sakaryaspor?

Esenler Erokspor 4-1 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esenler Erokspor win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 56%, draw 23%, Sakaryaspor 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esenler Erokspor), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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