AVS 1-3 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 7 Jan 2024

AVS
1-3 HT 0-2
Leixoes
📅07/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
15%
4.49
6+ Goals
7%
24.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 36% vs market 33.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.3pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 21%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.49/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.48
-22% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.7 Crosses 19.6
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
1-3
AWAY Leixoes
0.83 xG 1.72
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 0
293 Passes 148
78% Pass Accuracy 64%
40 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AVS vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes got the better of AVS 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was AVS at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AVS had 64% of the ball to Leixoes's 36%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 0.83 to 1.72.

What was the final score of AVS vs Leixoes?

AVS 1-3 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated a AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split AVS 45%, draw 28%, Leixoes 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AVS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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