Paços De Ferreira 3-0 Porto II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 7 Jan 2024

Paços De Ferreira
3-0 HT 2-0
Porto II
📅07/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Paços De Ferreira vs Porto II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 30% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paços De Ferreira v Porto II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto II EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.05/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.95
-60% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
23.5 Crosses 19.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Paços De Ferreira 3-0 Porto II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
3-0
AWAY Porto II
1.19 xG 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
219 Passes 375
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Porto II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira ran out comfortable winners over Porto II 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Paços De Ferreira made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 40% of the ball to Porto II's 60%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.19 to 1.50.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Porto II?

Paços De Ferreira 3-0 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Porto II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 40%, draw 27%, Porto II 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✗ Under 2.5
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