Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 7 Feb 2024

Aston Villa
1-3 HT 0-2
Chelsea
📅07/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.49
No
51%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.71
6+ Goals
10%
7.04
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.01 — our 27% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.63
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
13%
4.79
X/2
12%
7.1
X/X
12%
5.86
2/1
6%
21.0
2/2
15%
4.51
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.8pp
51%
BTTS No
37%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.86/2.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.37/1.23
-52% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / +26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
– Crosses 21.0
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Aston Villa vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Chelsea
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.08 xG 1.44
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
336 Passes 485
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
21 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.01.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa FAK
24.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
01.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
11.12.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea HAZ
16.10.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-2 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
26.12.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-3 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP

Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-3
AWAY Chelsea
1.06 xG 1.56
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
352 Passes 391
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
45 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea saw off Aston Villa 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aston Villa had 49% of the ball to Chelsea's 51%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.06 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Aston Villa and 0.83 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Chelsea?

Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea in the England - FA Cup on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 41%, draw 25%, Chelsea 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ BTTS No
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