Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 7 Feb 2024

Nottingham Forest
1-1 HT 1-1
Bristol City
📅07/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.91
6+ Goals
10%
17.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 30% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.09
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
10%
16.0
X/1
13%
3.65
X/2
8%
10.1
X/X
9%
4.75
2/1
10%
25.0
2/2
13%
8.52
2/X
9%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-11.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.3pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
1.75/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.89
-4% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +83% / +147%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 68%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
19.0 Crosses 11.0
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bristol City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.22 xG 0.81
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
354 Passes 280
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.01.2024 Bristol City Bristol City 0-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK
26.02.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
19.10.2021 Bristol City Bristol City 1-2 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
10.04.2021 Bristol City Bristol City 0-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
03.10.2020 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 1-2 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
01.07.2020 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bristol City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
1-1
AWAY Bristol City
1.57 xG 2.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 10
546 Passes 450
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest and Bristol City shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Nottingham Forest at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 53% of the ball to Bristol City's 47%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 1.57 to 2.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.50 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City?

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bristol City in the England - FA Cup on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 46%, draw 28%, Bristol City 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nottingham Forest), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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