Chelsea 0-0 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 26 Jan 2024

Chelsea
0-0 HT 0-0
Aston Villa
📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✓
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
23%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
8.74
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 26% vs market 17.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.47
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.35
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
4.48
X/2
10%
7.77
X/X
12%
5.52
2/1
8%
21.75
2/2
7%
5.3
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · X/1 at 4.48 — our 24% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
23%
Away Win
27%
-4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 30%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
0.68/0.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.53
-59% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -74% / +30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
27.4 Crosses 15.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.63 xG 1.17
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
501 Passes 323
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
01.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
11.12.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea HAZ
16.10.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-2 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
26.12.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-3 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
22.09.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNLK

Chelsea 0-0 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
0-0
AWAY Aston Villa
0.84 xG 0.97
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
452 Passes 305
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
38 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea and Aston Villa fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Chelsea at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Chelsea had 57% of the ball to Aston Villa's 43%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.84 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chelsea and 1.00 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Aston Villa?

Chelsea 0-0 Aston Villa in the England - FA Cup on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 50%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 23%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chelsea) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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