Tottenham 0-1 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 26 Jan 2024

Tottenham
0-1 HT 0-0
Manchester City
📅26/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Tottenham vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.64
6+ Goals
12%
6.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.05
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.3
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
9%
7.99
X/2
12%
4.65
X/X
8%
6.09
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
23%
2.41
2/X
9%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.3 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.3pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tottenham v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 54%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -41% / -41%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.30/1.17
-29% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -82% / +16%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 463 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
– Crosses 22.0
– Yellow Cards 3.4

Tottenham vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Manchester City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.87 xG 2.23
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
288 Passes 530
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 46
10 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 3-3 HT 2-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
05.02.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
19.01.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-2 HT 0-2 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
19.02.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-3 HT 1-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
15.08.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
25.04.2021 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNLK

Tottenham 0-1 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
0-1
AWAY Manchester City
0.28 xG 2.23
43% Ball Possession 57%
1 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 14
385 Passes 528
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 42
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City nicked a narrow win over Tottenham 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tottenham had 43% of the ball to Manchester City's 57%, shots finished 1-18, expected goals 0.28 to 2.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester City's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tottenham had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tottenham and 1.67 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs Manchester City?

Tottenham 0-1 Manchester City in the England - FA Cup on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 30%, draw 24%, Manchester City 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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