Derby County 1-2 Ipswich Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 7 Feb 2026

Derby County
1-2 HT 0-1
Ipswich Town
📅07/02/2026 · 🕒15:31 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Derby County vs Ipswich Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.74
Over
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.86
2-3
39%
1.76
4-5
24%
3.93
6+
10%
18.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.01
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X ✗
11%
15.05
X/1
8%
7.56
X/2
16%
4.51
X/X
9%
4.54
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
19%
2.73
2/X
9%
14.05
Value flag · 1/X at 15.05 — our 11% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+2.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.9pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Ipswich Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Ipswich Town EU Bookmakers 51%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
1.22/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.93
+17% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +27%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
239 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
19.1 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Derby County vs Ipswich Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ipswich Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.88 xG 1.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
297 Passes 289
71% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.08.2025 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 2-2 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
01.04.2023 Derby County Derby County 0-2 HT 0-1 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İN1
21.10.2022 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
13.02.2019 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
21.08.2018 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
30.12.2017 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 1-2 Ipswich Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-2
AWAY Ipswich Town
1.05 xG 1.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
313 Passes 263
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Ipswich Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ipswich Town edged past Derby County 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ipswich Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Derby County had 54% of the ball to Ipswich Town's 46%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.05 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Derby County and 1.17 for Ipswich Town.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Ipswich Town?

Derby County 1-2 Ipswich Town in the England - Championship on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Ipswich Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ipswich Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Derby County 28%, draw 29%, Ipswich Town 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ipswich Town), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ipswich Town) ✓ BTTS Yes
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