Ipswich Town 2-2 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 30 Aug 2025

Ipswich Town
2-2 HT 1-0
Derby County
📅30/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Ipswich Town vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
59%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.67
Over
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.55
2-3
39%
1.72
4-5
23%
4.23
6+
11%
21.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.05
X/1
24%
3.71
X/2
5%
11.5
X/X
11%
4.64
2/1
10%
27.0
2/2
7%
10.65
2/X
6%
19.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Ipswich Town win — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
61%
-1.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ipswich Town v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ipswich Town EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 19%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
2.19/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.30
+45% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 72%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
19.9 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Ipswich Town vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ipswich Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.04 xG 0.82
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
258 Passes 351
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.04.2023 Derby County Derby County 0-2 HT 0-1 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İN1
21.10.2022 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
13.02.2019 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
21.08.2018 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
30.12.2017 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
28.11.2017 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-1 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL

Ipswich Town 2-2 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ipswich Town
2-2
AWAY Derby County
2.91 xG 1.48
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
391 Passes 127
82% Pass Accuracy 59%
41 Box Touches 11
29 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Ipswich Town vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ipswich Town and Derby County couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ipswich Town at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ipswich Town had 69% of the ball to Derby County's 31%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.91 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ipswich Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ipswich Town and 0.83 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Ipswich Town vs Derby County?

Ipswich Town 2-2 Derby County in the England - Championship on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ipswich Town vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ipswich Town win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Ipswich Town 59%, draw 23%, Derby County 18%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Ipswich Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ipswich Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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