Winterthur 1-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 7 Feb 2026

Winterthur
1-1 HT 0-0
Lugano
📅07/02/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Winterthur vs Lugano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.04
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
58%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.08
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.41
1/2 EV+ ✗
15%
19.65
1/X
4%
15.65
X/1
7%
10.45
X/2
18%
4.47
X/X
9%
6.59
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
24%
2.04
2/X
7%
14.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.65 — our 15% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
21%
+0.9pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.4pp
57%
Away Win
57%
+0.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Winterthur v Lugano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 62%
+10% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.05/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.19/1.14
+15% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -17%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
252 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 462 · 86%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.9
14.1 Crosses 18.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7

Winterthur vs Lugano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Lugano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
1.40 xG 2.19
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
262 Passes 513
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.01.2026 Lugano Lugano 4-1 HT 3-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
05.10.2025 Winterthur Winterthur 2-4 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
16.03.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
25.01.2025 Winterthur Winterthur 2-3 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.09.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
16.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 4-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV

Winterthur 1-1 Lugano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
1-1
AWAY Lugano
0.95 xG 1.82
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
191 Passes 490
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winterthur and Lugano couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Lugano carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Winterthur had 32% of the ball to Lugano's 68%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.95 to 1.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Winterthur and 3.17 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Lugano?

Winterthur 1-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 22%, draw 20%, Lugano 57%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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