Lugano 4-2 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.8
X/1
14%
3.91
X/2
9%
10.7
X/X
10%
6.34
2/1
6%
20.4
2/2
11%
7.72
2/X
5%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.1pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 22%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.71/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.42
+8% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
18.6 Crosses 11.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Winterthur
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
416 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 2-2 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
30.09.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 2-3 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
14.05.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 2-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
05.02.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-0 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
13.11.2022 Lugano Lugano 3-1 HT 2-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
4-2
AWAY Winterthur
2.40 xG 2.31
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
498 Passes 316
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano got the better of Winterthur 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lugano had 60% of the ball to Winterthur's 40%, shots finished 20-19, expected goals 2.40 to 2.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lugano and 1.33 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Winterthur?

Lugano 4-2 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lugano 52%, draw 22%, Winterthur 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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