Winterthur 2-3 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
49%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.52
1/2 EV+ ✓
7%
21.0
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
11%
9.93
X/2
15%
4.3
X/X
11%
5.76
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.08
2/X
8%
14.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.0 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
49%
Away Win
56%
-6.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 60%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.05/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.34
-3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -10%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
249 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
14.9 Crosses 15.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Lugano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.26 xG 1.62
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
302 Passes 450
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
16.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 4-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
06.04.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 2-2 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
30.09.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 2-3 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
14.05.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 2-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
2-3
AWAY Lugano
1.76 xG 1.58
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 8
163 Passes 433
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 37
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano squeezed past Winterthur 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Winterthur had 32% of the ball to Lugano's 68%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.76 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Winterthur and 2.50 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Lugano?

Winterthur 2-3 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 26%, draw 25%, Lugano 49%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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