Vukovar 3-2 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 7 Feb 2026

📅07/02/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.75
No
43%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.6
6+ Goals
11%
15.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.6pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vukovar EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 45%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -20%
1.24/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.95
+49% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
273 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.6 Crosses 17.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vukovar
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 1.45
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
294 Passes 360
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
01.11.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-1 Vukovar Vukovar HIR
15.08.2025 Vukovar Vukovar 1-1 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vukovar
3-2
AWAY Istra 1961
3.19 xG 1.74
37% Ball Possession 63%
26 Total Shots 13
13 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
188 Passes 396
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vukovar vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vukovar squeezed past Istra 1961 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Vukovar made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Vukovar had 37% of the ball to Istra 1961's 63%, shots finished 26-13, expected goals 3.19 to 1.74 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vukovar's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vukovar and 1.00 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Vukovar vs Istra 1961?

Vukovar 3-2 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vukovar vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated an Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vukovar 33%, draw 26%, Istra 1961 40%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Istra 1961) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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