New England Revolution 4-0 Alajuelense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
9%
8.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.47 — our 28% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-5.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Alajuelense EU Bookmakers 23%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
3.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/2.00
+26% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
39.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.0 Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
4-0
AWAY Alajuelense
2.83 xG 0.48
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
496 Passes 381
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs Alajuelense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New England Revolution swept aside Alajuelense 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had New England Revolution as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 55% of the ball to Alajuelense's 45%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.83 to 0.48.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Alajuelense?

New England Revolution 4-0 Alajuelense in the CONCACAF Champions League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs Alajuelense?

Before kick-off our model rated a New England Revolution win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 52%, draw 25%, Alajuelense 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New England Revolution), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New England Revolution) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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